Het Nieuws Vandaag: 05-08-2026

1. De raketten in de VS zijn op, groot gebrek aan luchtafweer in Oekraïne

In aanvulling op eerdere berichten (zie bijvoorbeeld de editie van gisteren) over een gering aantal Amerikaanse afweerraketten overal, meldt Reuters nu dat ook de Amerikaanse precisie-aanvalsraketten bijna op zijn. Zie 9.

Oekraïne merkt heel goed dat de Patriot-afweer er niet is. Rusland slaat ongenadig toe. Ook vannacht weer. Zie 2.

Gisteren, 4 augustus, liep de 40-dagen campagne van Oekraïne af om Rusland tot onderhandelingen te dwingen. Wat voor een getallen-hocuspocus wilde Zelensky nu toepassen? Zie 3.

De ex-bevelhebber van Oekraïne, Zaluzhny, stelt dat de NAVO ook in militair opzicht volledig uit de tijd is, (lopen 12 jaar achter) en dat Oekraïne nooit lid zal worden. Zaluzhny wil dat Oekraïne alternatieven zoekt. Zie 4.

Een gedetailleerd en lang artikel van de penibele situatie waarin de regering van Oekraïne terecht is gekomen. En Oekraïne in zijn geheel. Zie 5.

Er was vorige week een ‘akkefietje’ in de Kaspische zee, toen Oekraïne een Iraans schip beschoot. Volgens Iran had het drie doelen in Oekraïne op het oog en alleen excuses zouden dat hebben voorkomen. Zie 6.

Vandaag zou er wel eens een akkoord met Iran kunnen worden gesloten. Voor de details. Zie 7.

Voor de hyper actuele ontwikkelingen zie het live blog; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/8/5/iran-war-live-tehran-oman-talks-on-hormuz-positive-ship-hit-in-red-sea  

Iran pocht dat het flink veel wapens heeft geproduceerd (en ingevoerd) de afgelopen maanden. Ze zeggen er klaar voor te zijn. Zie 9.

De rente op de staatsschuld van de grote landen, gaat door het dak. Wie gaat dat betalen en hoe reageren de markten…oh? Zie 10.

De dappere burgers van Herwijnen hebben twee juridische procedures aangespannen tegen de SMART-L radar (onderdeel van het Westerse raketschild). De uitspraak is in beide gevallen vertraagd. Te ingewikkeld. Zie 11.

De ontwikkelingen van 2026 aan het front in Oekraïne op 4 augustus 2026volgens het ISW via de link https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-4-2026/. Dit zijn hun hoofdconclusies:

1. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) conducted at least 100 successful strikes against Russia in its initial 40-day strike operation against a wide target set, likely intending to generate several separate and sometimes mutually reinforcing effects that all aim to increase the cost to Russian President Vladimir Putin of continuing to wage war on Ukraine.
2. Ukraine’s strike campaigns are increasing the strain on Russian businesses, people, and air defenses.
3. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction.
4. Russian forces launched one ballistic missile and over 100 long-range strike drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian military assets on August 4.

 

2. Russian missile attack kills 14, injures 27 in Ukraine’s Kyiv region

Al Jazeera, 4 augustus 2026, ‘A Russian ballistic missile attack on the region surrounding Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, has killed at least 14 people and injured 27 others, the city’s military administration said. The latest attack comes after at least 27 people were killed in both Russia and Ukraine earlier this week.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/russia-strikes-ukrainian-capital-kyiv-with-ballistic-missiles.

 

3. Selenskijs Zahlenmagie – Ukraine will Russland zum Frieden zwingen

Junge Welt, 5 augustus 2026, ‘Genau 40 Tage lang wollte Wolodimir Selenskij nach eigenen Worten mit Geheimdienstoperationen »Einfluss auf Russland nehmen«, damit das Land den ukrainischen Friedensbedingungen für einen sofortigen Waffenstillstand zustimmt. Am Dienstag sind diese 40 Tage abgelaufen. Warum eigentlich gerade 40 und nicht 30 oder 50? Niemand weiß es, und Selenskij selbst ist bisher nicht als kabbalistischer Zahlenmystiker bekannt geworden.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/527344.selenskijs-zahlenmagie.html

 

4. Ukraine will ‘never’ join NATO, ex-commander Zaluzhnyi says

Kyiv Independent, 4 augustus 2026, ‘Ukraine will never become a member of NATO despite years of pursuing accession, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.K. and former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on Aug. 3. Speaking at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors in Kyiv, Zaluzhnyi argued that NATO’s military standards have fallen behind the realities of modern warfare and suggested Ukraine should instead pursue future European security alliances.’  Zie verder de bijlage  of https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-will-never-join-nato-ex-commander-zaluzhnyi-says/.

 

5. LONG READ: Zelenskiy sounding increasingly desperate as the hunt for air defence ammo fails

Intellinews, 3 augustus 2026, ‘Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is starting to sound desperate. A terrifying winter bombardment by Russian missiles is clearly on the way as soon as the mercury begins to fall, but the Uralian president said at the weekend, Kyiv is down to its last PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missile left. He has about six months to find some more.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://archive.ph/WjgAY.

 

6. Senior Iranian official claims Tehran scrapped 3 planned strikes on Ukraine following alleged ‘apology’

Kyiv Independent, 4 augustus 2026, ‘A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader claimed that Tehran had prepared to strike three sites in Ukraine before canceling the operation after what he described as an “apology” from Kyiv. Mohsen Rezaei said the planned retaliation was linked to a July 25 Ukrainian attack on a vessel transporting military cargo between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://kyivindependent.com/senior-iranian-official-says-tehran-scrapped-3-planned-strikes-on-ukraine-following-alleged-apology/.

 

7. U.S. nears Hormuz deal, aiming for Wednesday announcement

AXIOS, 5 augustus 2026, ‘The U.S., Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement, according to two regional sources and a U.S. official.’ Zie verder de bijlage of

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-deal-nears (zie ook US says deal on reopening Hormuz close as Iran, Oman hold ‘positive’ talks, Al Jazeera, 4 augustus 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/us-says-deal-on-reopening-hormuz-close-as-iran-oman-hold-positive-talks).

 

8. US has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say

Reuters, 4 augustus 2026, ‘The U.S. Army has used up much of its global stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for future conflicts. The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://www.reuters.com/world/us-has-used-virtually-all-its-long-range-precision-missiles-during-iran-war-2026-08-04/.

 

9. ‘Maximum use’: Iran boosts military strength during ceasefire with US

Al Jazeera, 4 augustus 2026, ‘Iran’s military authorities say they are prepared to resume war with the United States if negotiations again fall through, emphasising that they have adapted and recovered.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/maximum-use-iran-boosts-military-strength-during-ceasefire-with-us.

 

10. De rente op de staatsschuld van de G-7-landen overtreft nu de defensie-uitgaven

Businessam.be, 4 augustus 2026, ‘De rentebetalingen op de staatsschuld zijn nu hoger dan de defensie-uitgaven voor de meeste G-7-landen. Door de hoge schuldenlast zijn geavanceerde kwetsbaar voor schommelingen in de obligatierente. Prognoses voorspellen recordhoge rentelasten voor verschillende wereldmachten.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://businessam.be/de-rente-op-de-staatsschuld-van-de-g-7-landen-overtreft-nu-de-defensie-uitgaven/

 

11. Uitspraak over radar Herwijnen uitgesteld: rechters hebben meer tijd nodig

AD, 3 augustus 2026, ‘Zowel de Raad van State als Rechtbank Gelderland heeft laten weten pas later uitspraak te doen in de zaak rond de komst van de omstreden militaire radartoren in Herwijnen. In een brief laten de rechtbanken weten de termijn van zes weken niet te halen.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://www.ad.nl/vijfheerenlanden/uitspraak-over-radar-herwijnen-uitgesteld-rechters-hebben-meer-tijd-nodig~a6dd9297/.

 

Colofon: 

Vredespolitiek verschijnt elke werkdag en wordt samengesteld door Guido van Leemput met dagelijkse medewerking van Kees Kalkman en diverse los-vaste tipgevers.

Voor meer berichten, met name over bewapening, als deze zie ook Vredessite.nl; https://vredessite.nl/index.php.

 

Bij 2. Russian missile attack kills 14, injures 27 in Ukraine’s Kyiv region

Al Jazeera, 4 augustus 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/russia-strikes-ukrainian-capital-kyiv-with-ballistic-missiles

A Russian ballistic missile attack on the region surrounding Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, has killed at least 14 people and injured 27 others, the city’s military administration said.

The strikes early on Wednesday morning come after at least 27 people were killed in separate attacks in both Ukraine and Russia earlier this week, with the five-year-long conflict showing no signs of slowing down.

Kyiv’s military administration said seven sites had come under attack in the assault that began after midnight. Air raid alerts for Kyiv remained in place for more than an hour.

The city’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said one warehouse building had been destroyed near the city centre and rescue teams had pulled two people from the ruins. “There may still be people under the rubble,” he wrote on Telegram. “Search and rescue operations are proceeding.” Several other warehouses were also damaged in the attack, according to emergency services.

In an earlier post on Telegram, Klitschko said that air defence units had been in action to repel the assault. Ukraine has in recent months urged its allies for more supplies of US-made Patriot missile interceptors to protect its airspace against Russian ballistic attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said a lack of ballistic missile interceptors “only encourages Russia to launch such attacks that take human lives”.

Zelenskyy met US President Donald Trump last Tuesday, partly to lobby Washington for licences to produce Patriots domestically.

United Nations human rights monitors have voiced concern about the rising numbers of civilian casualties, which have reached their highest levels since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022.

 

Bij 3. Selenskijs Zahlenmagie – Ukraine will Russland zum Frieden zwingen

Junge Welt, 5 augustus 2026, https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/527344.selenskijs-zahlenmagie.html

Genau 40 Tage lang wollte Wolodimir Selenskij nach eigenen Worten mit Geheimdienstoperationen »Einfluss auf Russland nehmen«, damit das Land den ukrainischen Friedensbedingungen für einen sofortigen Waffenstillstand zustimmt. Am Dienstag sind diese 40 Tage abgelaufen. Warum eigentlich gerade 40 und nicht 30 oder 50? Niemand weiß es, und Selenskij selbst ist bisher nicht als kabbalistischer Zahlenmystiker bekannt geworden. Aber vielleicht lernen wir ihn ja gerade als solchen kennen. Denn 40 Tage saß Moses laut dem Alten Testament auf dem Berg Sinai, um die Zehn Gebote in Stein zu hauen, 40 Tage soll Christus in der Wüste gefastet haben, bevor er seine Predigertätigkeit aufnahm, 40 Tage lang soll es bei der Sintflut geregnet haben, und 40 Tage liegen zwischen Ostern und Christi Himmelfahrt. 40 Tage sind in der Bibel ein Symbol für »ziemlich lang«. Wörtlich zu nehmen ist das nicht.

Faktisch ist das Wunder, das Selenskij womöglich zu beschwören suchte, nicht eingetreten. Russland hat im Gegenteil seine Bombardements im ukrainischen Hinterland intensiviert. Die Häfen an der Schwarzmeerküste sind blockiert und zerstört, der ukrainische Export ist zum Erliegen gekommen. Die einzige Bahnstrecke von der Ukraine in die rumänischen Donauhäfen ist auch unterbrochen, seitdem Russland am Wochenende eine wichtige Brücke zerstört oder wenigstens stark beschädigt hat. Die ukrainische Hoffnung, durch Drohnenangriffe auf russische Raffinerien die Benzinversorgung der Armee und der Zivilbevölkerung lahmzulegen, hat allenfalls kurzfristige Effekte gehabt. Inzwischen sind in den meisten russischen Regionen – außer auf der Krim – die Limits für den Treibstoffverkauf schon wieder aufgehoben worden. Und die Hoffnung Kiews, durch flächendeckende Angriffe auf die Logistikfirma Wildberries, das russische Amazon, Versorgungsschwierigkeiten auszulösen, war wohl auch etwas zu phantastisch konzipiert, um ernstgenommen zu werden.

Nein, der Krieg geht weiter, und auch Russland hat eine Stufe hochgeschaltet. Für einen Frieden, der das russische Sicherheitsproblem in Gestalt einer radikal feindlichen Ukraine nicht politisch löst, gibt es keine Aussichten. Natürlich lässt Putin seine Bevölkerung dafür leiden; Selenskij und seine westlichen Sponsoren die Ukrainer aber auch.

 

Bij 4. Ukraine will ‘never’ join NATO, ex-commander Zaluzhnyi says

Kyiv Independent, 4 augustus 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-will-never-join-nato-ex-commander-zaluzhnyi-says/

Ukraine will never become a member of NATO despite years of pursuing accession, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.K. and former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on Aug. 3.

Speaking at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors in Kyiv, Zaluzhnyi argued that NATO’s military standards have fallen behind the realities of modern warfare and suggested Ukraine should instead pursue future European security alliances.

“I personally worked to ensure that we adopted NATO standards, and every year, I heard stories about how we were just about to join NATO. Unfortunately, we will never join it,” Zaluzhnyi said. According to Zaluzhnyi, one of the main obstacles is that NATO’s standards are outdated. “It is impossible for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, given their current level of development, to join an organization that is guided by World War II doctrines,” he said.

He added that it would take the alliance “about 12 years” to adopt new standards “to at least reach half the level of the Russian Federation.”

Instead of NATO membership, Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine should focus on emerging regional security arrangements. “Ukraine… will align itself with blocs and alliances that will likely form,” he said. “Most likely, we will be talking about a European military security bloc.”

Ukraine’s Constitution identifies NATO membership as a strategic objective.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously indicated that Kyiv could postpone joining the alliance if it receives security guarantees from the United States and European partners.

Zaluzhnyi served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces from 2021 until 2024 and left the post with high public approval ratings. He is expected to run in Ukraine’s next presidential election.

 

Bij 5. LONG READ: Zelenskiy sounding increasingly desperate as the hunt for air defence ammo fails

Intellinews, 3 augustus 2026, https://archive.ph/WjgAY

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is starting to sound desperate. A terrifying winter bombardment by Russian missiles is clearly on the way as soon as the mercury begins to fall, but the Uralian president said at the weekend, Kyiv is down to its last PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missile left. He has about six months to find some more.

And the chances of getting any more have fallen close to zero. Zelenskiy made a deal with US President Donald Trump during the Ankara Nato summit on July 8 to get a license to manufacture the only missile that can take out Russia’s deadly ballistic missiles, only for Trump to walk his commitment back less than a week later. He talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone in the meantime.

Zelenskiy also asked Trump for an emergency tranche of 300 interceptors from the US stockpile. But an audit of the US stockpile just found the US military is down to only 759 interceptors left, according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), after the first month of the Iran war. Zelenskiy was demanding a third of the remaining US stock of PAC-3s and obviously Trump said no. “We need them ourselves.”

Europe can’t help either as they are also scrapping the bottom of the barrel after generously sharing what spares they had over the last four and half years. Orders to replace those missiles are already backed up for years as the US only makes about 650 interceptor missiles a year. They are very complicated and expensive to produce.

But none of this has stopped Zelenskiy from appealing for help on nearly a daily basis.

“The United States knows what we need. Europe knows what we need. Anti-ballistic missiles must protect people – not sit in stockpiles. And every day without this vital assistance gives Russia another chance to kill our people,” the president said in his daily video address again on August 1.

This campaign is summed up in a project, known as FREYJA, that is the centerpiece of the newly created Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition, launched by Ukraine and several European countries to develop a joint missile defense capability. But unless some more actual missiles can be found, all FREYJA is, is a new rhetorical device to pretend something is being done about defence. 

The tone has changed. The swagger of the wartime “I don’t need a ride, I need ammo” hero has faded. The talk of Nato membership has been abandoned as that is never going to happen. Plans for counter-offensives and coalitions with the US plus Europe has given way photoshoots with the E3 (France, Britain and Germany), which has been reduced to the E2 after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was forced to resign and will be reduced to an E1 when French President Emmanuel Macron leaves office next year. Zelenskiy sounds almost plaintive as he pleads with allies to dig even deeper into stockpiles that have already been run down to below strategic minimums.

Zelenskiy is left grappling with a problem to which it seems there is no solution as Ukraine is about to face its Battle of Britain moment.

One interceptor

Russia is getting ready to repeat last winter’s campaign where Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to freeze Ukraine into submission by destroying what remains of Ukraine’s power sector. Ukraine went into this war with just under 60GW of generating capacity but currently has 14GW left. Russia has reportedly already begun stockpiling missiles for this year’s campaign and has ramped up missile production capacity in the last year – almost doubling the output to some 2,500 missiles a year.

It’s crunch time for Kyiv. For much of the second and third year of the war residents of Kyiv became almost blasé about the air raid sirens, confident that the Blue and Yellow Iron dome of air defences that cover the capital could repel the inbound Russian rockets and drones.

That has changed now as the volume of Russian missile attacks has mushroomed just as the supply to interceptor missiles dwindles. Tens of thousands of Kyivians now find themselves spending the weekend sleeping in the ornate subway stations. Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko warned last weekend that the city’s shelter network, roughly 4,000 sites, cannot expand fast enough because district administrations have failed to spend funds already allocated for mobile shelters.

On August 1-2, Russia launched 35 missiles and 185 attack drones at Ukraine overnight – 27 of them ballistic. Ukraine’s air force intercepted precisely one. “Only one ballistic missile was intercepted, simply because there are no interceptors for the Patriot systems,” Zelenskiy said in his evening address, adding that Kyiv bore the brunt of the attack while Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava regions were also hit. Eighteen residential buildings, a school and the Lithuanian Embassy were damaged; nine people were killed.

Russia is rapidly scaling up its missile war, as Zelenskiy correctly said in Turkey earlier this month: “The war is going into the air.” The president has been pleading with the West to close the skies over Ukraine since the first week of the war, but his worst fears have been realised. The skies over Ukraine are now open. This was the worst possible time to sack Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and then fail to replace him as part of the recent surprise government reshuffle.

But the missile shortage is only the most visible of four crises now running in parallel: a presidency shaken by its worst domestic unrest since the war began, a front line buckling in the Donbas, and a civilian-economy war that both sides are now waging deliberately against each other. None of the four is new on its own; but now they are all escalating at once.

Russia launched a record 376 missiles at Ukraine in July – half of which were ballistic missiles that only Patriot interceptors can bring down, and more than twice as much as in June, according to a new AFP analysis. For comparison, Russia launched between 200 and 300 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in all of 2024. At the same time, the Kremlin has ramped up its use of drones to around 2,000 per month and slightly fewer of the very powerful FAB glide bombs, again which Ukraine has no defences at all. Not even the Patriot interceptors can stop a glide bomb, as it falls rather than flies.

Washington gives, then takes back

The interceptor shortage was supposed to have a fix. At the Nato summit in Ankara, Trump made a dramatic volte-face on support for Ukraine by pledging to grant Ukraine a licence to make Patriot missiles itself, even though the construction of those factories would likely take years to complete.

But only days after Ukraine signed off on joint ventures with the leading US manufacturers in the same week, Trump told a Cabinet meeting at Camp David “we have not agreed to that”, calling Patriot production technology “a hard thing to give away“. Then Boeing put the kybosh on the project by refusing to share its advanced seeker technology with Ukraine.

As it becomes increasingly clear Ukraine will not be resupplied with new interceptors, Zelenskiy turned to Plan B: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) can’t shoot inbound Russian missiles down while in the air, then it will blow up the launchers before they ever leave the ground. But for that to work, Zelenskiy needs US help too.

Zelenskiy asked Trump to lean on US billionaire Elon Musk to widen Starlink access for Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia: the Kyiv Post reported that Trump said he would consider the request but made no commitment; the owner of the satellite communications company, Musk’s SpaceX, currently allows Ukraine to use Starlink only on its own territory, including Russian-occupied Crimea, and blocks it inside Russia proper thanks to the intervention of Ukraine’s now ousted Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who struck up a good rapport with the eccentric US tycoon.

Despite Zelenskiy’s Churchillian reputation, Musk rejected a Bankova-request for a meeting while in Washington. It appears that the president’s decision to sack his popular Defence Minister has turned out to be a major blunder, The Atlantic reported.

The last plank in Zelenskiy defence strategy is a call on G7 allies to close “all the gaps” in their sanctions regimes and specifically targeting companies supplying components for Russian ballistic missiles as well as demanding a total crackdown on tech aiding Moscow’s oil refining sector in a last-ditch effort to cut off Russian supplies of critical technology.

That is not working either. As IntelliNews reported, the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) is crippling Ukraine’s ports with the new cheap-to-produce Banderol cruise missile that has only recently joined the fray to devastating effect. A large share of its electronics is sourced from the so-called “unfriendly countries” that have imposed sanctions on Russia. The EU recently passed its 21^st sanctions package, but was forced to significantly water its measures down thanks to heavy lobbying by member state vested interests. Despite the upbeat rhetoric, the entire “extreme” sanctions regime remains as leaky as a colander.

A presidency under siege

The war in Ukraine has moved into its most brutal phase so far as both sides are endeavouring to make life for the general population as hard as possible – and that is costing Zelenskiy at the polls.

Zelenskiy is fighting a second war at home. Ukraine’s largest street protests since 2014 broke out following the dismissal of Fedorov, who local reports claim the president saw as a growing political rival. Zelenskiy is believed to have also sacked the former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi when he also overtook the president in the polls. The official explanation was an irreconcilable personality clash with commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was also sacked. “Without me they don’t sit down together [to talk],” Zelenskiy told the Financial Times.

Tensions in Ukrainian society are rising before the reshuffle scandal broke as weariness with the war and hardship grows. Videos of the much hated Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centres (TCK) officers snatching young men from the street and bundling them into buses — the “busification” campaign – are a daily occurrence. There was an outpouring of public outrage after TCK officers grabbed a 34-year-old single father from Kryvyi Rih, snatched in front of his 5-year-old daughter as he picked her up from school. The father was the sole caregiver and the school’s principal took the weeping little girl to the recruitment centre to try and have the father released. They refused. It was only when the video of the girl crying blew up on the social media that Bankova relented.

Violence towards the TCK officers has tripled in the last year, with one officer reportedly dying after being stabbed in the neck by his victims already. There were reports and video of a man opening fire on a TCK officer trying to busify him just this weekend. An anti-conscription riot broke out in Lviv two weeks ago where protestors rioted and smashed up a TCK car causing the officers to flee the scene.

Zelenskiy’s approval rating in the polls have tumbled to 59%, still high but much less than Putin’s own 66%. An Ukrainska Pravda-reported poll from July put trust in former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi at 70%, Fedorov at 65% and Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s former HUR spy master who now the head of the presidential administration, at 62%. All three men now poll ahead of Zelenskiy.

At the start of July Zelenskiy was mulling with the idea of holding elections in September and reportedly asked Zaluzhnyi to stay out of the race. Zaluzhnyi refused. Zelenskiy has since dropped the idea of a vote.

It’s not a political crisis yet: a separate July 20-21 first-round vote-preference poll still had Zelenskiy comfortably ahead of both potential rivals with 22.3% to Zaluzhnyi’s 14.9% and Fedorov’s 13.4%. But protesters have continued gathering outside the presidential administration on and off for over two weeks now since the government reshuffle in an unprecedented display of public wartime opprobrium. One demonstrator quoted online on July 31 compared the chants directly to those that opened the 2014 Maidan revolution and Ukrainian protestors have already forced two presidents out of office.

Fuelling the unrest is the metastasizing Energoatom corruption scandal that has implicated most of Zelenskiy’s inner circle, focused on his close friend Tymur Mindich, who skipped town only hours before investigators raid his home and office in Kyiv. He is accused of siphoning off $100mn in kickback schemes – a toilet made of solid gold was found in his apartment – that left Ukraine’s nuclear power infrastructure defenceless in the face of Russian drone attacks and now lives in self-imposed exile in Israel.

More ominously, protests first erupted last year after Zelenskiy attempted to gut Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms by ramming through law 21414 at the weekend during the Rada’s summer break. Caught out by the popular anger and Brussel’s harsh criticism, he was rapidly forced to back down and reverse the decision. Last summer, Zelenskiy was criticised for becoming increasingly authoritarian. He has yet to directly address the complaints of the crowds currently gathering on the Maidan square.

Coming a year apart, the two sets of street demonstrations have fed a narrative, encouraged by critics and Russian disinformation alike. Iuliia Mendel, Zelenskiy’s former press secretary, has become a vocal critic of her former boss, denouncing the corruption surrounding him in a widely shared interview with US celebrity journalist Tucker Carlson on March 22. Bankova, Ukraine’s presidential administration, has countered with a large-scale media campaign to discredit her and reportedly threatened to conscript her husband and send him to the frontlines.

The front is buckling too

Zelenskiy is facing major setbacks on both the international and domestic fronts, but the most threatening is things are going badly on the battlefield too, although exactly what is happening remains the subject of a lively debate.

In the run up to the Ankara Nato summit, Bankova’s media machine went into overdrive to push the “the war has reached a turning point” narrative that became a well-established meme, but since then reports from the Donbas are starting to admit that the Russian forces are making slow by steady progress, albeit at an enormous cost in lives, and the famed “Fortress Belt” is in danger to falling to Russia.

“We may soon learn that Zelenskiy expended unsustainable levels of Ukrainian manpower in the first half of 2026 to create his “turning point” PR campaign to try to win over Trump by the July Nato summit. And now the damage is coming due,” said veteran Russia reporter Mark Ames in a social media post.

Several key cities have fallen into Russian hands in the last six months. The key logistics hub of Pokrovsk was captured in December that stands at a nexus of road and rail to supply Ukraine’s forces protecting the unoccupied parts of Donbas. Although it is not completely controlled by Russia, it is in effect lost to the Ukrainian government.

More recently Kostiantynivka has also been taken by the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) this month, one of the three fortress cities that make up the belt cities at the heart of the war today. And in the last week Chasiv Yar that commands the approach to the fortress belt also fell to Russia after just under three years of fighting.

It has been impossible to confirm the status of these battles, and the milbloggers’ reports on them disagree on the extent of Russian control. Thanks to the advent of drone warfare, a city’s capture is no longer a binary event. The AFR have largely pushed the AFU out of Pokrovsk, but a Russian soldier attempting to patrol its streets faces the constant threat of a death-from-above drone strike by AFU units still operating in or near the city.

The Lyon-based AMK Mapping milblogger has reported that not only has Kostiantynivka fallen, but the AFR are now only a few kilometres away from Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the remain two fortress cities in the defensive belt and Russian troops are starting to infiltrate the suburbs, which is how Pokrovsk was captured. He released a video, purportedly of a Russian First Person View (FPV) drone flying at ground level through Kramatorsk, hunting for Ukrainian military vehicles this weekend.

Other milbloggers, such as the Washington-funded Institute for the Study of War (ISW), claim the AFR’s progress is much slower, taking less than 1.2km/day. The oft sited DeepState milblogger also reports slow progress, but critics complain it releases its widely followed maps with long delays and suspended releasing fresh maps in the run up to the Turkish Nato meeting entirely. Nevertheless, all the milbloggers admit that the AFU defenders are on their backfoot and Russia is making progress.

As the Russians get closer to the fortress cities, they come into both artillery and glide bomb range. The massive FAB glide bombs – powerful WWII-era gravity bombs with wings and jets strapped to their backs – can carry as much as 3,000kg of high explosive, whereas a typical drone carries only 50kg of explosives. A drone can kill a man; a glide bomb destroys the entire building he is hiding in.

But glide bombs have a maximum range of 100km, which is why reports by milblogger Military Summary this weekend of a very rare patrol over Donetsk Oblast for the first time in two years by a Russian SU-57 all the way up to the southeastern outskirts of Donetsk city, coming within 78 km of today’s frontline, are unsettling. Glide bombs are typically released from the SU-57.

Ukraine remains defenceless against these cheap and plentiful weapons. Even Patriot interceptors cannot stop them. The only way is to shoot down the plane that drops the bomb and Ukraine only has 37 F-16s to Russia’s fleet of 350 highly advanced fighter jets. 

One of Fedorov’s innovations was to introduce medium-range drones that have been playing havoc with Russian supply lines, but on balance the destructive power of glide bombs outweighs those disruptions, and Zelenskiy reports that Russia has been using them in large numbers.

“The loss of the people and infrastructure just increased. People are running from Ukraine and this tendency will increase before winter,” said Mendel in a comment on the reports coming out of the Donbas. Last week, unconfirmed reports appeared on social media of a large increase in the number of people queuing up at the border trying to leave.

The deteriorating picture is now the first major test for incoming commander-in-chief Mykhailo Drapatyi, who takes over a front requiring difficult stabilisation decisions before the end of summer.

And the lack of manpower remains a major headache for both Ukraine and Russia. The AFR is reportedly losing around 1,000-1,400 men a month – more than it is able to recruit. However, the AFU is also losing an estimated 200 men a month: four times less than Russia if you accept the official estimate of 35mn people in total, and six-times less if you believe the alternative estimates of 25mn people that includes the 8mn refugees that have left the country since the war starter. In other words, proportionally, Ukraine is losing as many or more men each month as Russia.

Answering in kind

With interceptors scarce and the front under pressure, Ukraine’s only option hurt Russia too as much as it is hurting Ukraine. That is fuelling the rapid escalation in the tit-for-tat missile war.

In the middle of July Kyiv’s drones destroyed the warehouses of Russia’s largest e-commerce company, Wildberries’ Elektrostal and Kotovsk logistics centres that accounts for just under 9% of the country’s entire retail turnover and 3% of GDP. Wildberries also owes trillions of rubles to Russia’s second largest bank, VTB, and could also cause a financial crisis if it goes bust – which seems increasingly likely.

Operation Wildberries killed and reconstruction alone could cost Wildberries’ parent RUB35.8bn ($446mn). But the real damage it is has brought the war in Ukraine into the front room of regular Russians; Putin has worked hard to insulate the bulk of society from any effects of the war, but that façade is crumbling now.

Kyiv is also racing to close its missile-production gap rather than wait on empty promises from Washington. Ukraine gave up all its missiles at independence three decades ago, but since the war began has set up new production that is now starting to churn out domestic missiles. Ukraine already successfully adapted its Neptune ship killer and sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship right at the start of the war. Since then Fire Point, a company founded by Zelenskiy’s associates, has already developed the Flamingo cruise missile and the FP-9 programme to make Ukraine’s first true ballistic missile, is expected to go into production this autumn.

Russia’s sheer size was the key advantage in the war against Napoleon in 1812, It is now a liability against Ukraine as the Kremlin cannot effectively protect even a fraction of its own territory. Even Moscow has a population the size of most Central European countries. Military analysts say that Ukraine does not even need to reach parity with Russia’s missile production to inflict complete chaos on the Russian economy. But it has become a race against time and time is running out fast. 

 

Bij 6. Senior Iranian official claims Tehran scrapped 3 planned strikes on Ukraine following alleged ‘apology’

Kyiv Independent, 4 augustus 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/senior-iranian-official-says-tehran-scrapped-3-planned-strikes-on-ukraine-following-alleged-apology/

A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader claimed that Tehran had prepared to strike three sites in Ukraine before canceling the operation after what he described as an “apology” from Kyiv, according to Iranian state broadcaster PressTV.

Mohsen Rezaei said the planned retaliation was linked to a July 25 Ukrainian attack on a vessel transporting military cargo between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea.

“We were set to strike three sites in Ukraine, but canceled the attack following Ukraine’s apology,” Rezaei reportedly said. Rezaei did not provide any evidence to support his claims or specify the alleged targets, and his statements have not been independently verified.

Iran condemned the Ukrainian strike as “an act of aggression” and warned that it “cannot go unanswered.”

Following Kyiv’s attack on the vessel, Ukraine’s Security Service, the SBU, confirmed that the vessel was operating while evading international sanctions.

The tensions appeared to ease after Acting Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on July 28, with Araghchi saying Ukraine had described the strike as unintentional and that Tehran was not seeking further escalation.

For his part, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said he held a “frank conversation” with his Iranian counterpart.

“I reiterated that all of Ukraine’s actions are aimed solely at defending our country from Russian aggression and never intended to target civilian vessels or people,” Sybiha said after Tehran protested the operation.

Relations between Ukraine and Iran have remained strained since Tehran began supplying Shahed drones to Russia in 2022 and later licensed their production in Russia, making Iran one of Moscow’s key military partners during its full-scale invasion.

 

Bij 7. U.S. nears Hormuz deal, aiming for Wednesday announcement

AXIOS, 5 augustus 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-deal-nears (zie ook US says deal on reopening Hormuz close as Iran, Oman hold ‘positive’ talks

Al Jazeera, 4 augustus 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/us-says-deal-on-reopening-hormuz-close-as-iran-oman-hold-positive-talks)

The U.S., Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement, according to two regional sources and a U.S. official.

Why it matters: The deal, which has been under negotiations for several weeks, is aimed at resuming the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and restarting negotiations over a nuclear deal.

• President Trump decided on Saturday not to follow through on threats to unleash a massive bombing campaign, in order to allow more time for diplomacy. If a deal isn’t reached soon, however, Trump could green-light major strikes.
• The emerging deal would meet some of Iran’s demands for greater control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — control it didn’t have before the war.

Driving the news: According to two regional sources, the deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz strait, which could be extended.

• All inbound traffic of ships through the strait and into the Gulf would go in a northern lane through Iranian waters.
• All outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea would go in a southern lane through Omani waters, in coordination with Iran.
• No tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period.
• The parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.
• After the median lane is cleared, it would be used for inbound and outbound traffic under the terms of a permanent arrangement to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.

Yes, but: The White House, Oman and regional mediators thought they had a deal with Iran three weeks ago, only to see Iran resume attacks on ships. That led to two weeks of fighting and almost an all-out war.

Behind the scenes: In addition to the talks between Oman and Iran, Qatari, Pakistani and Saudi officials were also involved in the mediation efforts, regional sources say.

• The White House was actively involved in the negotiations, the regional sources said. In recent days, there were several calls between Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi.
• Two regional sources said Araghchi agreed in principle over the weekend but still needed approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Supreme National Security Council.
• A U.S. official and a regional source said Iranian leadership completed its approval process on Tuesday.

 

Bij 8. US has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say

Reuters, 4 augustus 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-has-used-virtually-all-its-long-range-precision-missiles-during-iran-war-2026-08-04/

The U.S. Army has used up much of its global stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for future conflicts.

The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources. The degree to which the military is running out of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles has not been previously reported.

The long-range munitions – which cost more than $1 million each – are an important part of the military’s arsenal, allowing accurate strikes from a safe distance. U.S.-supplied ATACMS have played a key role in the war in Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian forces to attack targets inside Russia. The PrSM is a newer, more advanced generation that will replace the ATACMS, which have a shorter range.

The dramatic rundown in precision, long-range missiles means U.S. President Donald Trump may have to rely more on riskier, piloted bombing missions if he relaunches large-scale attacks on Iran. The sources declined to say how many of each munition the U.S. had left.

Trump launched the Iran war jointly with Israel in February, predicting that the conflict would last a short time.

But as the war drags on, the three people familiar with the matter expressed worry that the falling missile supplies could limit the U.S. ability to deter adversaries, including Russia and China.

A fourth person familiar with the matter said that despite the high usage of precision weapons, the U.S. can resupply. Central Command — which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East — has been able to reload from U.S. military supplies around the world, the person said.

The sources interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Asked for comment on the stockpile data, the White House issued a statement from Trump, saying the U.S. had “far more munitions than anyone in the world” and “far more than we need.”

“Our defense companies are, at this moment, making more munitions than they have ever made before, in addition to expanding their plants and equipment at record levels,” Trump said.

Analysts agree that certain munitions, including artillery shells and several types of missiles, are being produced at record levels but caution that supplies might fall short of what is needed for a prolonged war.

Lockheed Martin, which makes the ATACMS and PrSMs, along with the anti-ballisticmissile THAAD system, did not immediately respond to questions about Trump’s statements or about supply levels. Raytheon, which makes Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors, two important U.S. weapons, also did not immediately respond.

Responding to a request for comment, chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said: “America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing. We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”

The supply figures have circulated inside the federal government over the last week during tense conversations inside the Trump administration about how much longer the U.S. can continue striking Iran without drawing down the stockpile to levels that would limit the military’s ability to respond to crises elsewhere.

WARNINGS OVER WEAPONS SUPPLIES

One of the sources said the drawdown of the ATACMS and PrSM stockpiles reflected a decision by the Trump administration to avoid riskier ways of attacking Iranian targets, such as by using piloted aircraft to drop bombs.

Because these weapons allow the military to attack targets from a distance, analysts say they would be valuable in a war against an adversary with strong air defenses, such as China. They have been used to strike targets inside Iran, according to a March report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

According to the report, PrSM stockpiles were low to start with, since it is a relatively new munition, but the U.S. military has ordered a large number of them for 2027. The Army has said that ATACMS are being phased out and that production is shifting to the newer PrSM missiles.

Military leaders have for weeks warned the president that stockpiles of defensive weapons — including Patriot interceptors, which are effective against ballistic missiles — were dwindling, said two of the sources.

Last week, several media outlets reported Trump had decided not to launch another massive offensive inside Iran in part because his military advisers had warned about the U.S. stockpile.

A U.S. official disputed those accounts, saying Trump chose not to move forward with another attack because of pressure from Gulf states.

The Middle East conflict has sparked intense debate about Trump’s authority to prosecute hostilities against Iran without congressional authorization. No request for a declaration of war or an authorization to use military force has been submitted to Congress.

DEFENSIVE WEAPON STOCKS ARE ALSO DIMINISHED

Last week, CSIS published a report estimating that between February and July about 65% of Patriot interceptors had been expended and that the number of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors in U.S. stockpiles was at least 38% lower than at the start of the war. Patriots and THAADs are systems that detect and destroy incoming missiles and are among the most effective in the country’s arsenal. While Reuters has not seen the supply figures, those numbers match internal U.S. data, two of the sources said.

The U.S. also burned through a little less than half of its global supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are generally launched from ships, since the start of the war, one of the sources said. Reuters could not independently verify that number.

The Tomahawk is a Navy weapon, launched from destroyers, cruisers and submarines, and has long served as the sea service’s principal means of striking heavily defended targets without risking pilots.

Raytheon, a unit of RTX, has reached a tentative multi-year agreement with the Pentagon aimed at boosting Tomahawk production, alongside increases in other munitions, as Washington races to rebuild stockpiles.

 

Bij 9. ‘Maximum use’: Iran boosts military strength during ceasefire with US

Al Jazeera, 4 augustus 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/maximum-use-iran-boosts-military-strength-during-ceasefire-with-us

Iran’s military authorities say they are prepared to resume war with the United States if negotiations again fall through, emphasising that they have adapted and recovered.

Washington has signalled that an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent, and US President Donald Trump renewed his demand for a deal, or “total surrender” this week.

But the Islamic Republic has said while talks are ongoing with Oman and other mediators to end the US-Israel war on Iran, work on boosting military strength has only intensified.

“We have made maximum use of the opportunity of the memorandum of understanding and every moment of the ceasefire,” army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told state television this week, referring to a now-suspended MoU signed with the US in June.

He said attempts were made to induct existing equipment into the armed forces and import new equipment, as well as repairing and recovering damaged systems or manufacturing new systems. The brigadier general also said new-generation drones have been used in combat, and their specifications would be announced later.

Last month, Iran’s acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn-e Reza said that missile and drone production had “not stopped for a single day” and that drone production had reached three times its pre-war levels. But he did not provide any figures.

“Despite the martyrdom of top commanders, the armed forces not only did not lose their cohesion, but confronted the enemy with many surprises through their speed, initiative and high tactical ability,” the acting minister said.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the force driving politics in Iran and also launching ballistic missile and drone attacks, has reported similar accounts.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said late last month that Iran’s missile production increased during the ceasefire, while missile accuracy had improved using the knowledge gained in battle. The IRGC has not disclosed any information about its stockpiles of weapons, or the extent of damage inflicted against the country’s domestic arms production capacities or air defences.

‘Improving domestic production and quality’

US media reports in June said Iran retained approximately 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and about 40 percent of its drone arsenal – an indication that Tehran could outlast months more of asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and other arenas.

Meanwhile, manned and unmanned aircraft operated by the US, Israel and a number of regional countries have carried out thousands of sorties inside Iranian airspace since the start of the war on February 28, while some have been spotted or shot down.

Iran’s air defences have been degraded, but the IRGC and the army have reported shooting down cruise missiles, as well as MQ-9, MQ-1 combat and surveillance drones and the one-way “Lucas” drones of the US Army across southern Iran over the past month.

Last week, the Reuters news agency, citing unnamed sources, said Iran could soon receive the first shipment of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defence missile launchers, reportedly to be transited through Pakistan. China and Pakistan rejected the report, while Iran did not comment.

Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a former senior IRGC commander, told Al Jazeera that thousands of strikes by the US and Israel have failed to deter the force. “We have been improving domestic production and quality. Our previous missiles have been improved in terms of range and warhead destructive power,” he said. “We also have stockpiles in our underground missile and drone cities, new parts of which are gradually entering our operational lines,” Kanani Moghaddam said, adding that this was one of the reasons why Trump has repeatedly called off larger strikes against Iran.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration once again threatened imminent strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and petrochemical companies, in an attempt to force Tehran into a deal.

Trump then abruptly cancelled the strikes and raised the prospects of a fresh deal, repeating his pattern over recent months.

But while the US halt to attacks has positively impacted global oil prices and US stocks in the short term, tensions across the region continue.

The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen on Tuesday said they launched a successful drone attack on the Najran Airport in Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi drones flying in Yemen’s Saada and Hajjah governorates.

An India-flagged cargo vessel was also struck by an explosives-rigged boat and was reported to be sinking some 13 nautical miles (24km) north of Yemen’s Hodeidah in the Red Sea. New Delhi said all 14 seafarers on the vessel were safely rescued.

Explosions and a fire were seen overnight in Kuwait near the border with Iraq, with some reports saying Iranian drones struck a US military base there. Kuwait, the US Central Command and the IRGC have not yet officially commented.

On Monday, a Liberian-flagged bulker suffered damage to its engine room after being hit by an unidentified projectile 20 nautical miles (37km) northeast of Khasab in Oman.

The IRGC has successfully hit or turned back more vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June MoU faltered last month, but some have passed through.

Iran has allowed some ships to take the northern route in its territorial waters, with Iraq’s Oil Ministry on Tuesday announcing that tankers carrying Iraqi crude had passed after coordination with Tehran.

Other vessels have attempted to take the southern route in Oman’s waters, which Iran has warned cannot be used safely during war conditions.

Kanani Moghaddam said continued attacks by the US and Israel cannot fully destroy Iran’s military infrastructure. “Our missile capabilities have been distributed across this vast country. Missile components are being manufactured in places where they can’t even imagine,” the former IRGC commander said.

Kanani Moghaddam said even if a US ground assault manages to temporarily occupy Iranian islands in the south, the operation could be costly for the US, and Iran will retake the islands later. “The Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened through military attacks,” he said.

 

Bij 10. De rente op de staatsschuld van de G-7-landen overtreft nu de defensie-uitgaven

businessam.be 4 augustus 2026, https://businessam.be/de-rente-op-de-staatsschuld-van-de-g-7-landen-overtreft-nu-de-defensie-uitgaven/

De rentebetalingen op de staatsschuld zijn nu hoger dan de defensie-uitgaven voor de meeste G-7-landen. Door de hoge schuldenlast zijn geavanceerde kwetsbaar voor schommelingen in de obligatierente. Prognoses voorspellen recordhoge rentelasten voor verschillende wereldmachten.

Volgens een recente analyse van Scope Ratings zijn de rentebetalingen nu hoger dan de defensie-uitgaven voor bijna alle G-7-landen, met alleen Canada en Duitsland als uitzonderingen. Het kredietbeoordelingsbureau benadrukte dat de stijgende kosten voor het aflossen van de staatsschuld deze grote geavanceerde economieën gevoeliger maken voor schommelingen in de obligatierente.

Financiële kwetsbaarheid

Eiko Sievert, uitvoerend directeur bij Scope, merkte op dat hoewel de meeste regeringen nog niet in een kritieke herfinancieringscrisis zijn beland, hun aanzienlijke schuldniveaus en grote primaire tekorten de overheidsfinanciën steeds kwetsbaarder maken in het licht van veranderende marktomstandigheden.

Deze trend suggereert dat, terwijl geopolitieke spanningen de noodzaak van hogere militaire uitgaven aanwakkeren, de financiële druk van de rente op de staatsschuld de dominante factor blijft die van invloed is op de nationale begrotingen.

Schuldenlasten

Het rapport laat verder zien dat elk G-7-land, met uitzondering van Duitsland, een schuldenlast heeft van meer dan 100 procent van het bruto binnenlands product. De verschillen in uitgaven zijn schrijnend: terwijl de rentelasten van Duitsland dit jaar naar schatting slechts 35 procent van de defensiebegroting bedragen, liggen de cijfers voor andere landen veel hoger. Zo bedragen de rentekosten van Italië 193 procent van de defensie-uitgaven, gevolgd door de Verenigde Staten met 121 procent, het Verenigd Koninkrijk met 105 procent en Frankrijk met 103 procent.

Recordniveaus op komst

Voor de toekomst verwacht Sievert dat de rentelasten als percentage van de totale inkomsten de komende vijf jaar recordniveaus zullen benaderen voor Frankrijk, Japan, China en de Verenigde Staten. (fc)

 

Bij 11. Uitspraak over radar Herwijnen uitgesteld: rechters hebben meer tijd nodig

AD, 3 augustus 2026, https://www.ad.nl/vijfheerenlanden/uitspraak-over-radar-herwijnen-uitgesteld-rechters-hebben-meer-tijd-nodig~a6dd9297/

Zowel de Raad van State als Rechtbank Gelderland heeft laten weten pas later uitspraak te doen in de zaak rond de komst van de omstreden militaire radartoren in Herwijnen. In een brief laten de rechtbanken weten de termijn van zes weken niet te halen.

Helemaal als verrassing komt dat niet. Na afloop van de zitting in juni waarschuwde de voorzitter van de meervoudige kamer van de Raad van State hier al voor. „Deze zaak is heel omvangrijk en complex.” Ook de toen naderende zomervakantie kon volgens haar voor vertraging zorgen.

Ook de rechtbank in Arnhem, waar de partijen anderhalve week later weer tegenover elkaar stonden, is nu tot dezelfde conclusie gekomen.

Schriftelijk laat zij weten: ‘Het is helaas niet mogelijk gebleken om uitspraak te doen binnen deze termijn. De rechtbank heeft daarom besloten deze termijn met zes weken te verlengen.’

Een datum waarop dan wel uitspraak wordt gedaan, is echter niet gegeven.

Omgevingsvergunning

De twee rechtszaken gingen over verschillende onderdelen van hetzelfde dossier. Bij de Raad van State stond het besluit van het Rijk centraal om de komst van de militaire SMART-L-radar in Herwijnen planologisch mogelijk te maken. Daarbij werd onder meer gekeken naar de locatiekeuze, de onderbouwing van de noodzaak van de radar en de manier waarop de besluitvorming tot stand is gekomen.

De rechtbank Gelderland boog zich juist over de omgevingsvergunning die Defensie nodig heeft om de radartoren daadwerkelijk te bouwen. Tegen beide besluiten maakten onder meer de gemeente West Betuwe en stichting Niet nog een radar in Herwijnen bezwaar.

Zij stellen onder meer dat onvoldoende is aangetoond dat Herwijnen de enige geschikte locatie is en hebben daarnaast al jaren zorgen over de mogelijke gevolgen voor de gezondheid en leefomgeving van omwonenden.