1. De ontwikkelingen van 27 juli 2026 aan het front in Oekraïne volgens het ISW via de link https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-27-2026/. Dit zijn hun hoofdconclusies:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to militarize Russian society and to shift the responsibility for the war in Ukraine onto the Russian State Duma deputies and the Russian population.
- Putin continues efforts to persuade personnel mobilized in 2022 to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and continue fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Putin continues to marginally increase the authorized end strength of the Russian Armed Forces as part of ongoing Russian military reforms.
- Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian export and oil infrastructure from July 26 to 27.
- Russia launched 147 drones against Ukraine overnight on July 26 to 27.
- Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on July 27.
- Herhaalbericht; MAANDAG 3 augustus 2026; Stille tocht en blokkade vliegbasis Volkel
In stilte lopen we maandag 3 augustus de 2,7 km van de kerk in Volkel naar de hoofdpoort van de luchtmachtbasis om daar als om 12 uur het luchtalarm afgaat 81 minuten de poort te blokkeren: één minuut voor elk jaar sinds op 6 en 9 augustus 1945 de bommen op Hiroshima en Nagasaki werden afgeworpen. Je kan hier klikken voor het Signal groepje voor deze actie. Zo kun je je ook opgeven voor de bus van Theaterstraat die vanaf Amsterdam station Blijmer-Arena via station Den Bosch naar Volkel en terug rijdt. Opgeven voor de bus kan ook door een mailtje te sturen aan noelhuis@antenna.nl.
Zie voor verdere informatie en aanmelding https://noelhuis.nl/stille-tocht-en-blokkade/
- Exclusive: Ukraine, US align on new peace push as officials hope Russia accepts air truce
The Kyiv Independent, 24 juli 2026, ‘Ukraine and the U.S. are coordinating a new round of peace proposals to present to Moscow, hoping that changing war dynamics could create the opportunity to push Russia toward negotiations, Ukrainian and U.S. officials told the Kyiv Independent. The proposals would reflect what Ukrainian officials describe as new “realities on the ground” after months of shifting momentum in the war.’ Zie de bijlage of https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-align-on-new-peace-push-as-officials-say-russia-may-accept-air-ceasefire/.
- Too soon to comment on new peace initiatives, Kremlin says after reported US-Ukraine ceasefire talks
The Kyiv Independent, 26 juli 2026, ‘Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on July 26 that it was “premature” for Moscow to comment on reports that the United States and Ukraine have been coordinating proposals for an aerial ceasefire.’ Zie bijlage ofhttps://kyivindependent.com/too-soon-to-comment-on-new-peace-initiatives-kremlin-says-after-reported-us-ukraine-ceasefire-talks/. (zie ook Impressed by Ukraine’s Battlefield Gains, Trump Warms to Zelensky, Wall Street Journal, 27 juli 2026, https://archive.ph/dy0Zj)
- Russia wants 30,000 more troops from North Korea, Zelenskyy says
Politico, 26 juli 2026, ‘Moscow and Pyongyang in 2024 signed a pact of “mutual assistance in case of aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Moscow wants to bring in 30,000 additional troops from North Korea to fight alongside Russian forces in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.’ Zie bijlage of https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-troops-north-korea-volodymyr-zelenskyy-says/.
- RAGOZIN: Zelenskiy’s failed revolt exposes the limits of his power
IntelliNews, Leonid Ragozin, 26 juli 2026, ‘Zelenskiy’s reshuffle has backfired and caused a fresh scandal at a time when the conflict is drifting towards “total war.” Ex-Defence Minister Fedorov looks like the latest “magic wand” that will fix Ukraine’s problems, but there is no magic wand that can stop the destruction.’ Zie bijlage of https://www.intellinews.com/ragozin-zelenskiy-s-failed-revolt-exposes-the-limits-of-his-power-456842/.
- Pentagon Database Shows More Than 200 US Casualties in Iran War Since July 7
Anitwar.com, 27 juli 2026, ‘Since July 7, four US troops have been killed, and more than 200 have been wounded in the Iran war, according to the Pentagon’s official casualty database, known as the Defense Casualty Analysis System.’ Zie bijlage of https://news.antiwar.com/2026/07/27/pentagon-database-shows-more-than-200-us-casualties-in-iran-war-since-july-7/.
- Iran’s missile resilience challenges US forces
Financial Times, 28 juli 2026, Soon after the US launched its joint attack with Israel on Iran in late February, defence secretary Pete Hegseth declared that among its aims were to “destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production”. Recent fighting has provided conditions for Tehran’s forces to launch more precision strikes across Gulf and Jordan.’ Zie de bijlage of https://archive.ph/scNbt.
- Israel Beats the Drums of War With Iran, but Trump Is Not Picking Up the Tune
Haaretz, Amos Harel, 27 juli 2026, ‘The Iran developments offer three possibilities: the situation remains fluid, Trump’s statements should not be taken at face value, and Israeli readings of U.S. intentions require skepticism. If the Gulf does not escalate, the West Bank will.’ Zie bijlage of https://archive.ph/6GtBo.
- Groningen herdenkt kernwapenbombardement op Hiroshima en Nagasaki. ’De les moet zijn: dit was eens, maar nooit weer’
Dagblad van het Noorden, 27 juli 2026, ‘Groningen herdenkt op 6 augustus het kernwapenbombardement op Hiroshima en Nagasaki. Mede-initiatiefnemer Willem de Haan (69) legt uit waarom dat ook ruim tachtig jaar na dato belangrijk blijft.’ Zie bijlage of https://www.dvhn.nl/regio/groningen/stad/groningen-herdenkt-kernwapenbombardement-op-hiroshima-en-nagasaki.-de-les-moet-zijn-dit-was-eens-maar-nooit-weer/159216638.html.
- Van Nijkerkerbrug tot F-35: gemeenten eisen breder onderzoek naar megakazerne in Zeewolde
VRMG, 27 juli 2026, ‘Defensie kijkt bij het onderzoek naar de nieuwe kazerne in Zeewolde te weinig naar de gevolgen voor Gelderland. Dat stellen de gemeenten Nijkerk, Ermelo en Harderwijk in hun zienswijzen. Zij vrezen onder meer extra verkeersdruk, woningnood, geluidsoverlast en schade aan kwetsbare natuur.’ Zie verder de bijlage of https://vrmg.nl/van-nijkerkerbrug-tot-f-35-gemeenten-eisen-breder-onderzoek-naar-megakazerne-in-zeewolde.
Colofon:
Vredespolitiek verschijnt elke werkdag en wordt samengesteld door Guido van Leemput met dagelijkse medewerking van Kees Kalkman en diverse los-vaste tipgevers.
Voor meer berichten, met name over bewapening, als deze zie ook Vredessite.nl; https://vredessite.nl/index.php.
Bij 3. Exclusive: Ukraine, US align on new peace push as officials hope Russia accepts air truce
The Kyiv Independent, 24 juli 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-align-on-new-peace-push-as-officials-say-russia-may-accept-air-ceasefire/
Ukraine and the U.S. are coordinating a new round of peace proposals to present to Moscow, hoping that changing war dynamics could create the opportunity to push Russia toward negotiations, Ukrainian and U.S. officials told the Kyiv Independent.
The proposals would reflect what Ukrainian officials describe as new “realities on the ground” after months of shifting momentum in the war.
One U.S. official said the White House believes the Kremlin may now be more willing to accept at least a partial ceasefire in the air as Ukraine expands its strikes inside Russia.
The renewed diplomatic push comes after months of deadlock, with Washington now trying to revive negotiations that effectively stalled earlier this year.
Peace talks return
President Volodymyr Zelensky recently held a call with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoys leading Washington’s efforts to broker a settlement between Ukraine and Russia. According to a person with direct knowledge of the conversation, the discussion did not include detailed proposals. Instead, the two envoys informed Zelensky that the White House is preparing a revised framework for negotiations.
The next step is expected to involve close coordination with Kyiv before the proposals are presented to Moscow.
Ukraine had hoped to continue those discussions in person with Witkoff and Kushner during meetings in Finland this week. Those plans were ultimately derailed by the latest escalation between the United States and Iran.
Even so, negotiations continue behind the scenes.
According to officials familiar with the planning, Witkoff and Kushner currently have no plans to visit Kyiv, but are expected to travel to Russia in late July or early August after aligning positions with the Ukrainian side.
Trump, Zelensky prepare next move
The renewed diplomatic effort is expected to gain momentum early next week.
Zelensky and Trump are preparing to meet to discuss the next phase of the peace initiative.
One person familiar with the planning said the leaders could meet on the sidelines of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral on July 28, although a meeting at the White House also remains under consideration.
Among the issues expected to be discussed is another attempt to arrange direct talks between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Zelensky has argued that only Putin has the authority to end Russia’s full-scale war. Yet every attempt to organize a meeting has encountered the same obstacle.
The Kremlin has consistently rejected meetings in a neutral country, instead insisting that Zelensky travel to Russia — a proposal Kyiv views less as a genuine offer than as a convenient way to avoid direct negotiations altogether.
Trump has previously said he would not oppose participating in such a meeting if it helped advance peace efforts.
A different battlefield
In recent months, both sides have dramatically expanded their long-range air campaigns.
Ukraine has intensified strikes against Russian logistics, military infrastructure, and strategic targets deep inside Russian territory.
Russia, meanwhile, has escalated missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities, pounding Kyiv’s civilian infrastructure several times a week.
Ukraine faces an acute shortage of Patriot interceptors, currently the only system capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles.
The Ukrainian president previously sent Trump a letter warning about Ukraine’s shortage of anti-ballistic missile capabilities. While the White House responded, it remains unclear whether the U.S. agreed to help address the issue.
That battlefield picture is shaping the latest diplomatic calculations. The apparent logic is that both sides may have an incentive to accept such a truce: Ukraine is running low on interceptors, while Russia is exposed to long-range Ukrainian strikes.
According to one U.S. official, Washington believes Russia may now be more receptive to negotiating an air ceasefire than it was a few months ago.
Whether that willingness extends to a broader settlement remains far less certain.
U.S. officials declined to say whether the White House will apply additional pressure on Russia if it doesn’t agree to the new proposals.
“We remain open to the negotiation process,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on July 23.
Ukrainian officials, however, remain skeptical that Moscow is prepared to end the war. They believe the realistic opening lies in a possible ceasefire in the skies — even as the fighting on the ground continues.
Bij 4. Too soon to comment on new peace initiatives, Kremlin says after reported US-Ukraine ceasefire talks
The Kyiv Independent, 26 juli 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/too-soon-to-comment-on-new-peace-initiatives-kremlin-says-after-reported-us-ukraine-ceasefire-talks/. (zie ook Impressed by Ukraine’s Battlefield Gains, Trump Warms to Zelensky, Wall Street Journal, 27 juli 2026, https://archive.ph/dy0Zj)
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on July 26 that it was “premature” for Moscow to comment on reports that the United States and Ukraine have been coordinating proposals for an aerial ceasefire.
Peskov’s comments come after the Kyiv Independent reported on July 24 that Ukraine and the U.S. are preparing a new round of peace proposals, including a partial aerial ceasefire, to present to Moscow.
“We do not know how credible these reports are or where they come from. These are newspaper reports and nothing more,” Peskov said on July 26, following additional media reports that the U.S. and Ukraine were collaborating on an aerial ceasefire proposal.
“Therefore, it is premature to comment on them at this stage.”
Peskov said the Russian government needs to learn more information about the new peace proposals and evaluate how closely they align with Russia’s interests.
“We have heard statements that some new formulas may be possible. We still need to learn more about them,” he said .”And, over time, some formulas or proposals will probably be put forward. What happens next will depend on how closely they correspond to our interests.”
On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had already communicated its ceasefire proposals directly to Russia. “We have made all the necessary proposals to the political leadership of Russia to end the war with a worthy peace,” Zelensky said. “All partners know what needs to be done.”
The president said Ukraine would continue carrying out deep strikes in Russia, focusing on striking an updated list of targets, in order to pressure Moscow back to the negotiating table.
Previously, U.S. and Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent that the increasing success of Ukraine’s long-range strikes and shifting dynamics of the war could create conditions for a renewed diplomatic effort following a months-long stalemate. One U.S. official said the White House believes the Kremlin may now be more willing to accept at least a partial ceasefire in the air as Ukraine expands its strike campaign.
Zelensky also reported a recent phone call with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the U.S. envoys who have been representing the U.S. in trilateral talks with Kyiv and Moscow. Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump are also preparing to meet again soon, possibly on the sidelines of the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral on July 28.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila on July 23, saying afterwards that “new ideas” would be needed to reach a peace deal. Rubio argued that previous ideas — such as surrendering to Russia territory Ukraine currently controls — had been unacceptable to Ukraine and would likely be even less acceptable now.
While Russia has remained committed to its maximalist demands, achieving a partial ceasefire on air attacks may be a realistic goal, as both Kyiv and Moscow have ramped up long-range strikes in recent months.
Russia has launched a wave of devastating mass missile and drone strikes against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities over the spring and summer, relying on high-speed ballistic missiles to overwhelm Ukraine’s strained air defenses.
Ukraine, in turn, has hammered Russian oil assets and logistics hubs, triggering a major fuel crisis throughout the country and hitting high-profile targets, including the Moscow Oil Refinery and e-commerce giant Wildberries.
Bij 5. Russia wants 30,000 more troops from North Korea, Zelenskyy says
Politico, 26 juli 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-troops-north-korea-volodymyr-zelenskyy-says/
Moscow and Pyongyang in 2024 signed a pact of “mutual assistance in case of aggression.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Moscow wants to bring in 30,000 additional troops from North Korea to fight alongside Russian forces in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.
“We also see Russia’s cooperation with North Korea. Russia wants to receive another 30,000 troops from North Korea,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Saturday evening. “Since June, preparations have been under way in Russia’s Voronezh region to receive them.”
According to estimates, Pyongyang already has transferred about 12,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk border region, under a mutual defense pact signed with Moscow in 2024.
Over the course of the four-year war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly relied on North Korea to supply artillery shells and missiles. Bringing in North Korean troops is raising concerns about Moscow transferring its own military know-how to the regime of Kim Yong Un in Pyongyang.
“Russia is helping North Korea learn how to wage war, improve its weapons, and gain real combat experience in using them,” Zelenskyy said.
“All of this is a threat to everyone in Asia who is within range of North Korean missiles. We will counter this,” he said.
Bij 6. RAGOZIN: Zelenskiy’s failed revolt exposes the limits of his power
IntelliNews, Leonid Ragozin, 26 juli 2026, https://www.intellinews.com/ragozin-zelenskiy-s-failed-revolt-exposes-the-limits-of-his-power-456842/
Zelenskiy’s reshuffle has backfired and caused a fresh scandal at a time when the conflict is drifting towards “total war.” Ex-Defence Minister Fedorov looks like the latest “magic wand” that will fix Ukraine’s problems, but there is no magic wand that can stop the destruction.
Nothing screams political impotence like a national leader losing control over key military appointments at the time of war. With an abrupt cabinet reshuffle, Volodymyr Zelenskiy tried to get rid a disloyal defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov. But at the end of the day he was forced to sack a loyal commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, who happened to be Fedorov’s arch-rival. Adding insult to injury, Zelenskiy was also forced to replace him with Mikhailo Drapatyi who openly supported Fedorov in the conflict.
There was still a fair chance at the time of writing that Fedorov himself would be reinstated as defence minister.
Zelenskiy sacked Iulia Svyrydenko’s cabinet in its entirety, but the former prime minister barely features in the story which revolves around Fedorov. The reshuffle triggered open confrontation between Zelenskiy and political groups favoured by Ukraine’s main international backers – European governments, Western defence industries and Nato’s apparatus, as well as mainstream Western media. Protests were held in major cities, demanding that Zelenskiy fires Syrskyi and reinstates Fedorov.
But it’s not these average-sized rallies, unthreatening to public order and definitely not growing into a new Maidan, which made the Ukrainian president to back off and sacrifice a key ally. It was also hardly caused by several military commanders, including Drapatyi, who effectively mutineered against the president and the commander-in-chief by backing Fedorov. Zelenskiy has a few prominent military figures on his side, too.
What really caused Zelenskiy’s change of tack was the pressure from Ukraine’s Western allies upon whose support Zelenskiy’s Ukraine existentially relies on and who believe they have a majority stake in the enterprise Ukraine. This is the only kind of political support which the Ukrainian president can’t afford to lose.
Lame duck’s revolt
What Zelenskiy attempted to pull off by sacking the cabinet (prominently including Fedorov) was a revolt against the arrangement that emerged in the wake of the corruption scandal that rocked Ukraine last fall and centred on the president’s immediate entourage.
The corruption investigation, which effectively turned Zelenskiy into an obedient lame duck (and the main scapegoat once the war ends) was spearheaded by Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, NABU and SAPO. Zelenskiy has zero control over both of them, but the two agencies are strongly influenced by Western governments which insisted on their creation in the first place. People like veteran Ukrainian political leader Iuilia Tymoshenko openly describe them as tools of external control.
In the wake of the corruption debacle last fall, Zelenskiy had to sacrifice his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who was immediately charged by NABU – in a clear signal aimed at the president himself.
Zelenskiy replaced Yermak with the former military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, a political heavyweight in his own right – more a tentative ally than a truly loyal grey cardinal. The corruption scandal made Zelenskiy primarily reliant on secret services and powerful warlord-like military commanders, like Azov movement leader Andriy Biletsky. It also elevated one of Ukraine’s darkest securocratic figures, Oleksandr Poklad, to the post of the first deputy head of SBU, Ukraine’s security service.
Poklad used to head SBU’s fifth directorate responsible for political assassinations and closely linked to the CIA, according to Washington Post and New York Times. Ukrainian media named him as the person behind the unsuccessful attempt to derail the corruption investigation against Zelenskiy’s friends by targeting NABU detectives in unrelated criminal cases.
In the latest cabinet reshuffle, Poklad was promoted once again – he became SBU’s acting chief, while the former chief, Yevhen Khmara, took over the defence ministry. What Zelenskiy was attempting to create in his revolt reminds of Vladimir Putin’s “vertical of power” that relies heavily on loyal secret services and doesn’t tolerate disloyal officials and political challengers, like Fedorov.
Ukraine’s latest new Superman
The ousted defence minister also owes his elevation from the post of digital transformation minister to that of defence minister to Zelenskiy’s corruption scandal. But soon after his appointment it became apparent that he couldn’t develop friendly relations with many of Zelenskiy’s key allies, prominently including Syrskyi.
Fedorov didn’t even try to be liked by Zelenskiy’s entourage correctly assuming that he has a more powerful patron. Soon after his appointment, the young minster emerged as the Western establishment’s latest Ukrainian darling, a tech wiz promising “it’s a kind of magic” solutions that could help defeat Russia.
The main source of his “magic” power is Palantir – the American tech giant which provides Ukraine with cutting-edge battlefield software and takes pride in being responsible for most of the targeting for Ukrainian drones that are now hitting infrastructure over a thousand kilometres deep into the Russian territory. Fedorov was Palantir’s prime contact ever since the company CEO, Alex Karp, first visited Kyiv in June 2022. Karp showed up in the Ukrainian capital again, in Fedorov’s company, last May when the campaign of deep and midrange drone strikes against Russia began to unfold.
This tentatively successful drone campaign has been central to the “turning tide” strategic communication campaign that unfolded over the last few months and strove to prove that Ukraine is suddenly having the upper hand in the conflict. That propaganda effort was propelled by the same international coalition of Ukraine’s backers (European governments, Western defence industries and Nato apparatus) and it seemingly succeeded in swaying its one-man premium target audience – Donald Trump. Judging by his statements during and after Nato’s latest Ankara summit on July 8 , he has bought into the idea that a little more escalation by Ukraine could result in Putin accepting peace on Western terms.
This effort was driven the same brand of magical thinking that made leading Western powers throw Ukraine under Putin’s bulldozer in 2022 instead of finalising the peace process accelerated by Putin-Zelenskiy summit in Paris in 2019 or using the chance of ending Russia’s all-out aggression at its inception during Istanbul talks in the spring of 2022.
It stems from the quasi-religious belief in the Western moral, economic and technological supremacy as well is in Russia’s civilisational inferiority, which makes proxy war a workable method of delivering a strategic defeat upon Russia without endangering Western economies and populations. It mirrors Trump’s delusions on Iran but on a far grander and infinitely more dangerous scale given Russia’s nuclear arsenal as well as economic and intellectual might.
In the mythological world of Ukraine war cheerleaders, there is always a “magic wand” in the shape of the latest cutting edge war technology and there is always a bunch of good, progressive, tech-savvy, Western-styled Ukrainians, like Fedorov and Drapatyi, who confront the corrupt Soviet-styled old guard (think Syrskyi), in order bring about the desired changes. It only takes providing the magic wand and a political lift to these new heroes to make Putin escape beyond the Urals, as Zelenskiy promised in a recent statement.
The problem is that this scenario has never worked, and it doesn’t seem to be working this time again. As far as magic wands go, Ukraine initially demonstrated tangible success with deep strikes knocking out Russian refineries and midrange strikes, causing blackouts and an acute deficit of fuel in the Russia-occupied Crimea. On the heels of that achievement, Zelenskiy announced a forty-day aerial campaign aimed at coercing Russia into peace on his terms.
The announcement came on June 26. Almost thirty days later, Russia’s fuel crisis is being visibly alleviated, while its slow-moving land offensive continues as before. Crucially, Moscow’s position peace settlement hasn’t moved one inch towards that of Ukraine. In fact, it has hardened after Moscow ditched the possibility was land swap compensating Ukraine for withdrawing its troops from northern Donbas.
But the scale of Russian aerial drone and missiles attacks has intensified to an extent that Ukrainian observers are now talking about their country entering the “total war phase” that could gradually render it virtually unliveable. At the time writing, Russian strikes have almost completely halted Ukraine’s import and export through the port of Odesa in a painful blow for the country’s grain and ore producers.
Meanwhile a prominent leader of Ukraine’s volunteer movement helping the army, Taras Chmut, has recently called on Ukrainians living in large cities to consider moving to the countryside or abroad before what many expect as the harshest winter for Ukraine since the start war, with most of its energy infrastructure destroyed by Russia.
Sleek presentation, dark reality
Perhaps Fedorov, Palantir and Western war planners they work have more methods of influencing up their sleeve, but the situation looks like replay of Ukraine’s failed 2023 offensive, only with less ambitious expectations (the current target of freezing the conflict on the current frontline was anathema for the war cheerleaders back in 2023).
Fedorov might look like Luke Skywalker in A New Hope to Western audiences, but for Ukrainians he is the person who for the last half a year presided over the brutal mobilisation campaign, with violent press gangs hunting men in the streets and beating them into obedience before sending to the frontline, sometimes to death.
Fedorov pledged to reform the mobilisation but did nothing except glamorous presentations. His main plan of reform was to professionalise the army by raising salaries of the servicemen to the Russian level and replacing half of the stormtroopers with foreign mercenaries. Western taxpayers were of course supposed to foot that bill and of course they won’t.
This conundrum derives from the fundamental problem of Ukraine’s war effort as a whole. The war cheerleaders in the West want Ukrainians to fight a war that vast majority of them doesn’t want to fight. No amount of tech wizardry can change this fact. Riots against mobilisation officers in Lviv, a hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism, earlier this month indicate very clearly what a real new Maidan revolution may stem from, rather than from another Western media darling being sacked.
The bitter truth is there is no alternative to mobilisation in its current brutal form at all. Every new Ukrainian defence minister, no matter how tech-savvy and adored in the West, will be the person who sends the perpetually dwindling number of Ukrainian men captured by press gangs to die in stinky trenches for the dubious cause of delivering a strategic defeat upon Putin’s Russia.
It doesn’t help at all when new appointees promoted by the West say things like what Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief Drapatyi said in a number of interviews over previous – that people in Donbas, the region Ukraine is fighting not to lose in its entirety, are mostly criminals and that Russia doesn’t deserve to exist as a nation. Statements like only help to foment more conflict that’s already turning Ukraine into a wasteland.
What the conflict in Ukraine has shown is that the West in its current sorry state has reached perfection in winning what it calls “cognitive war”, that is in creating illusionary bubbles and myth-ridden echo chambers for multi-million audiences. But the enemy never gets defeated or pacified as if the war is a goal in itself rather than the very last argument that’s best avoided in almost every situation.
Leonid Ragozin is a freelance journalist based in Riga. Formerly at the BBC, Newsweek and Lonely Planet guides. He tweets @leonidragozin
Bij 7. Pentagon Database Shows More Than 200 US Casualties in Iran War Since July 7
Anitwar.com, 27 juli 2026, https://news.antiwar.com/2026/07/27/pentagon-database-shows-more-than-200-us-casualties-in-iran-war-since-july-7/
The total includes four dead and 207 wounded
Since July 7, four US troops have been killed, and more than 200 have been wounded in the Iran war, according to the Pentagon’s official casualty database, known as the Defense Casualty Analysis System.
The four dead US soldiers include three who were killed in a July 17 Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, and they have been identified as Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Sgt. Angel Rampersad, 28, of Ozone Park.
The fourth soldier died on July 18 in Iraq, identified as Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton, a 30-year-old father from North Carolina, during what the US military called a controlled demolition of an unexploded Iranian drone. A US official told The New York Times that Swinton was not involved in the actual detonation but was hit by flying debris from the blast.
The database says that 207 US troops were also wounded, including 182 US Army soldiers, 21 US Navy personnel, and four US Air Force airmen. Many of the wounded sustained –injuries during Iranian attacks on US bases in Jordan, which became a frequent target of the IRGC during the latest exchange of strikes, which have been paused since Friday.
The 211 casualties are considered part of “Overseas Operations,” which began on July 7, as the Pentagon separated them from the earlier casualties in the war. During “Operation Epic Fury,” the codename for the first months of the war, at least 14 US troops were killed, and 417 were wounded, for a total of 642 casualties since President Trump launched the war with Israel on February 28.
US and Israeli attacks on Iran since February 28 have killed around 3,500 Iranians, including more than 50 since the US renewed strikes several weeks ago. In April, Iranian officials said nearly half of those killed were civilians, including the 120 school children killed in the US bombing of an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran.
The Trump administration has consistently downplayed casualties in the war, with the Pentagon only admitting to more than 100 of the recent injuries after The New York Times reported that it didn’t disclose dozens of injuries in Jordan in the days leading up to the deadly July 17 attack.
President Trump has also downplayed the casualties by sharing statistics of other US wars with higher casualty rates, and he claimed that the four soldiers who were killed had said that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon” as he was going to attend a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. “They said, and they — all of them said very strongly — we can’t let, we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. They won’t have a nuclear weapon. So we’re going to honor them. And it’s one of the hardest things to do. For me, it’s one of the hardest things to do as a president. But, has to be done,” Trump told reporters.
Bij 8. Iran’s missile resilience challenges US forces
Financial Times, 28 juli 2026, https://archive.ph/scNbt
Soon after the US launched its joint attack with Israel on Iran in late February, defence secretary Pete Hegseth declared that among its aims were to “destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production”.
Yet five months later and after hundreds of US attacks, Iran has been able to sustain the effectiveness of its missile force, continuing to launch apparently precise strikes on targets across the region.
Its missile crews have killed Americans at their barracks in Jordan, repeatedly struck buildings on major bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, targeted installations in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and appear to have learnt from their experiences under intense bombardment in March and April.
A shaky ceasefire that took hold in April, and the limits of the less intense American campaign of recent weeks — mostly focused on southern Iran — may have given Iranian crews breathing room to operate more methodically, said observers. Israel’s absence from the latest fighting has also relieved pressure. “It is easier to shoot if you are not being shot at,” said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on the Iranian ballistic missile programme at the French Institute for International Relations. “They are not having to scramble launchers around, so it is a much more favourable operational environment for them.”
At the weekend, fighting paused as mediators sought to prevent the warring parties from returning to full-blown conflict, though US President Donald Trump had also threatened late last week to escalate to a “massive attack” on Iran.
As US leaders mull their next steps, they will have to take into account factors such as their own missile stocks, including the expensive interceptors needed to prevent Iran’s attacks from doing further damage.
Between February 28 and April 8, Israel and the US aggressively sought to hunt and destroy the launchers and crews firing Iranian missiles. They collapsed entrances to their sprawling underground missile bases in a bid to trap them inside, while drones loitering overhead and fighters patrolling nearby were on alert as soon as a launcher was detected.
But now Iranian engineers appeared to be demonstrating an ability to quickly replenish and regenerate capacity by digging out buried bases, said Grajewski. “They definitely remain a threat.”
Analysts said it was difficult to untangle which factors may have helped Iran sustain the effectiveness of its missile force. They said some would be visible only to combatants themselves, including changes to hardware and the electronic warfare environment. Iran has also obtained targeting and navigational support from other countries, including intelligence from Russia.
Among the factors affecting Iranian strike rates could be interceptor usage levels among Americans and their allies, after reports that they burned through large numbers of interceptor missiles during the first months of the war.
“We may be shooting at them less, and they may be firing more accurate missiles,” said Jeffrey Lewis at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), adding that Iran appeared to be digging into its more modern missile stockpiles.
He said Iran seemed to be using fewer of its ageing missiles derived from the Soviet Scud or the North Korean Nodong. “Those things are very inaccurate,” he said. Because of a shift in the missile types being used, “there may be a natural increase in accuracy”, he said.
Iran could also be reaping dividends from a strategy of hitting installations critical to maintaining effective missile defence umbrellas earlier in the conflict, including radars and early-warning sites in Jordan and the Gulf, said Grajewski. “They are trying to basically shut off their ability to monitor and track these missiles,” she said. “There are definitely dividends coming from the fact that they managed to make some pretty high-value gains in the early targeting,” she added.
Jim Lamson, a former Iran-focused military analyst with the CIA, said the recent deadly attacks in Jordan suggested Iran was slipping more missiles through US and Arab defences. “It seems that in Jordan they have been able to get increased penetration of missile defences and increased accuracy for their medium-range ballistic missiles,” Lamson said. “You have to assume, if you are an American planner, that Iran is making both technical and tactical tweaks from lessons learnt in past conflicts.”
Iran, which has closely studied the lessons of its previous conflicts and the Russians’ battlefield experiences in Ukraine, will have been learning from its mistakes.
CNS’s Lewis noted that Iran had stepped up efforts to blur surrounding landscapes in videos touting missile launches, which made it harder for outsiders to identify where launches were taking place. Videos have suggested that Iranian crews were venturing further out from their underground bases to fire, he said.
“What we have seen is the Iranians adapt,” said Lewis. He said their crews no longer appeared to conduct controlled burns of vegetation at launch sites, as they did before firing during previous rounds of fighting, making it easier to spot where they planned to fire from.
At the same time, said Farzin Nadimi, an expert on the Iranian military at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pointed out that missile crews appear to have been confident enough to carry out daytime launches in recent fighting, rather than sticking to the cover of darkness.
Lamson said the overall Iranian performance was likely due to an “accumulation of factors”. He said Iran could also have sought to finesse when to fire different systems, including slower-flying drones and cruise missiles alongside faster-moving ballistic missiles.
There may also be better co-ordination between and within the conventional Iranian armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There are tentative indications, based on which attacks are claimed by which force, that the regular Iranian armed forces may be taking on a greater role in drone operations, said Grajewski.
Analysts noted that it was unclear, even in cases where Iran struck buildings and bases, exactly what its missiles and drones had targeted. American bases are highly concentrated and a projectile that errs off course even by a few hundred metres could strike another building on the base.
Iran has said it is using missiles, including the Kheibar Shekan, which manoeuvre in their final approaches towards their targets. This can make it harder for already depleted missile defences and damaged radars to intercept them as they approach their targets.
“When mixed with other factors, the terminal manoeuvres might improve their effectiveness, especially if you have degraded radars and missile defence assets,” Lamson said.
The Americans now face a strategic dilemma: Iran maintains a potent missile force that it can use to retaliate against attacks. Containing that force would require the US to expand the scope of its own attacks, said analysts. “It is becoming increasingly difficult to defend against ballistic missiles at destination or during their terminal phase,” said Nadimi. “They will eventually realise that they need to dedicate more assets to going after the missile launchers and bases,” he added.
This could, Nadimi said, require Israel to return to fighting. Analysts suggested it was likely that the missiles that struck Jordan were fired from near Tabriz in north-western Iran, around where the Israelis had been active previously.
“There needs to be Israeli involvement,” said Nadimi. “It is very difficult, and so having a country with a military as capable as Israel involved is crucial.”
But Israeli involvement is likely to bring its own complications, while a widening of the conflict would surely cause the Americans to expend more interceptors. Israeli firepower in the early weeks of the war may have suppressed the Iranian missile threat but did not degrade it beyond repair. “Iran is a big country and going after those missile launchers is like looking for a needle in a haystack,” Nadimi said.
Bij 9. Israel Beats the Drums of War With Iran, but Trump Is Not Picking Up the Tune
Haaretz, Amos Harel, 27 juli 2026, https://archive.ph/6GtBo
The Iran developments offer three possibilities: the situation remains fluid, Trump’s statements should not be taken at face value, and Israeli readings of U.S. intentions require skepticism. If the Gulf does not escalate, the West Bank will.
After two days of confusion, a reason, or perhaps an excuse, was provided for the repeated delay of a planned major U.S. attack on Iran. It isn’t just that the attack never took place (at least, for now); on Saturday, after 13 consecutive nights of bombing, the United States did not report overnight strikes on Iran.
The New York Times, citing sources in the administration, said that President Donald Trump was delaying the attack because of the U.S. Central Command’s shortage of missiles, mainly Patriot missiles.
Such shortages don’t happen overnight, so it’s unclear why this factor would change American calculations. The Times also reported other reasons had surfaced in Trump’s discussions with his advisers and generals over the weekend.
They included doubts on the effectiveness of military attacks compared with the continued economic pressure, as well as Gulf states’ opposition to further escalation. Saudi Arabia, under attack by Yemen’s Houthis, is especially concerned. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are considering compromise proposals from the mediators.
As many in the Israeli media had spoken with absolute certainty of a renewed war involving Israel, the latest development points to three conclusions: First, anything could happen. Trump, who isn’t enthusiastic about any of his options, could still decide either way.
Second, there’s no point attributing excessive importance to the president’s declarations. He has made empty threats more than once and has no problem backing down from them when circumstances change.
Third, we should be extremely skeptical of Israeli analyses about U.S. moves. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in Israel joining a renewed war, so his people are making similar forecasts. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence isn’t entirely aware of the calculations Trump and his advisers are making.
Even after the U.S. aerial attacks have halted, at least temporarily, some in Israel are still trying to create the impression that renewed military escalation is inevitable.
On Sunday morning, it was reported that the security cabinet meeting was held in a secure underground facility. It seems this leak, like its predecessors, has a goal: to create the feeling of a state of emergency, and perhaps to hint to the Iranians that the next round is near and unavoidable. It’d be interesting to know if the Americans had pushed for the leaks.
The prime minister is supposed to leave for the United States on Monday to take part in Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral, and to meet with Trump. The regional escalation Netanyahu strives for remains a possibility. However, for now, it seems his host is less enthused about the idea. The Israeli public will continue to anxiously monitor developments.
If not in Iran
If the desired escalation won’t happen in the Gulf, Jerusalem can always fuel one in the West Bank. After clashes in which two Israelis and four Palestinians were killed west of Nablus on Friday, the usual wave of Israeli reactions ensued. They included cabinet ministers and coalition lawmakers making threats of revenge, settlers rioting, torching a mosque and Palestinian property, a wave of arrests by the army and the Shin Bet security service – and the establishment of five new illegal outposts in Samaria.
The number of Palestinian terror attacks actually went down over the last year. The few attacks in which Jews were killed mostly stemmed from clashes between settlers and their Palestinian neighbors, which developed into shooting or car-ramming attacks. The daily effort of the security forces thwarted most of the plans for more ambitious attacks. However, the constant provocations by the farms and outposts, alongside the establishment of ever more settlements with government encouragement, are increasing the friction.
The fatal incident in the village of Tell is liable to mark a breaking point, leading to another significant escalation of violence across the West Bank. The expected escalation will likely exceed the planned allocation of operational forces for this year. The violence so far has already created an intolerable burden on the reserve units for the third consecutive year. All this violence is happening under a government that deliberately stokes the flames on the Palestinian front with one hand, and advances laws that support ultra-Orthodox draft-dodging with the other.
The Democrats’ chair, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yair Golan, told Haaretz on Sunday: “Never has there been such militant rampaging by Jews in the West Bank. The addition of dozens of outposts and farms increases the area that the Israel Defense Forces has to defend and creates an intolerable security task for the forces.”
The organizers of the unauthorized hike that led to the confrontation between settlers and Palestinians, he said, “created a provocation that didn’t receive any permit from the head of the division’s center responsible for hikes. It’s an atmosphere of total lawlessness on the ground, for which the two people who were killed, a member of the Havat Gilad security squad and the commander, paid with their lives.”
Golan added: “Going on an unauthorized hike on a path passing through Palestinian Authority territory and within villages was an illegal act by a lawless and irresponsible group. The West Bank is an area without governance. It’s all been planned, because the government needs it to serve its political interests.”
Bij 10. Groningen herdenkt kernwapenbombardement op Hiroshima en Nagasaki. ’De les moet zijn: dit was eens, maar nooit weer’
Dagblad van het Noorden, 27 juli 2026, https://www.dvhn.nl/regio/groningen/stad/groningen-herdenkt-kernwapenbombardement-op-hiroshima-en-nagasaki.-de-les-moet-zijn-dit-was-eens-maar-nooit-weer/159216638.html
Groningen herdenkt op 6 augustus het kernwapenbombardement op Hiroshima en Nagasaki. Mede-initiatiefnemer Willem de Haan (69) legt uit waarom dat ook ruim tachtig jaar na dato belangrijk blijft.
Waarom hebben jullie dit initiatief opgepakt, Willem?
„Dit wordt de derde keer dat we deze herdenking organiseren. De gemeente Groningen doet het sinds 2020 ook, maar dan eens in de vijf jaar. Dus heb ik samen met mede-initiatiefnemer en -pacifist Harry van Velzen gezegd: dan doen wij het in de tussenliggende jaren.”
Waarom is het belangrijk om jaarlijks stil te staan bij het bombardement op Hiroshima op 6 augustus 1945 en Nagasaki drie dagen later?
„Omdat kernwapens de meest verschrikkelijke wapens zijn die er bestaan. En dat blijft ook nu nog altijd een reële dreiging, Ook nu nog blijven landen werken aan nieuwe generaties kernwapens en steeds vaker dreigen ze daar ook actief mee. Dus het is helemaal geen ondenkbaar scenario dat ze ook in onze tijd in conflicten worden ingezet.”
Welke boodschap willen jullie op 6 augustus over het voetlicht brengen?
„De les van dit verschrikkelijke drama moet zijn: dit was eens, maar nooit weer. Dat proberen we tussen de oren te krijgen bij de politiek en bevolking. In de jaren tachtig was het onderwerp nog zwaar beladen, nu hoor je er heel weinig mensen meer over in Nederland. Wereldwijd hebben meer dan honderd landen het VN Verdrag inzake het Verbod op Kernwapens ondertekend, maar Nederland zit er niet bij. Den Haag durft dat niet omdat in Volkel Amerikaanse kernkoppen staan opgesteld. We zitten klem. Het blijft belangrijk erop te hameren dat we geen kernwapens op ons grondgebied willen.”
Is dat in Groningen niet een beetje ver van ons bed?
„Nou, 6 augustus wordt nog altijd over de hele wereld herdacht. En Groningen heeft sinds 1985 natuurlijk haar eigen anti-kernwapenmonument op het Emmaplein. Bovendien heeft de gemeente in 2020 nog het ICAN Cities Appeal ondertekend: een internationale oproep tot naleving van het VN-kernwapenverbod. Dus zo’n gekke plek is Groningen niet voor deze herdenking.”
Wat gaan jullie op het Emmaplein doen?
„Er zijn sprekers, er is muziek en een ceremonie met gevouwen papieren kraanvogels, het internationale symbool voor vrede en een kernwapenvrije wereld. We proberen elk jaar iets te vernieuwen. Vorig jaar sprak een familielid van een overlevende van Hiroshima. Volgend jaar hopen we na de stad ook andere gemeenten in Groningen zich aan te laten sluiten bij het Cities Appeal.”
Bij 11. Van Nijkerkerbrug tot F-35: gemeenten eisen breder onderzoek naar megakazerne in Zeewolde
VRMG, 27 juli 2026, https://vrmg.nl/van-nijkerkerbrug-tot-f-35-gemeenten-eisen-breder-onderzoek-naar-megakazerne-in-zeewolde
Defensie kijkt bij het onderzoek naar de nieuwe kazerne in Zeewolde te weinig naar de gevolgen voor Gelderland. Dat stellen de gemeenten Nijkerk, Ermelo en Harderwijk in hun zienswijzen. Zij vrezen onder meer extra verkeersdruk, woningnood, geluidsoverlast en schade aan kwetsbare natuur.
De nieuwe kazerne komt aan de Spiekweg in Zeewolde, vlak bij de grens met Gelderland. Op de locatie moeten ongeveer zevenduizend medewerkers gaan werken. Defensie onderzoekt momenteel welke gevolgen het project heeft voor de omgeving.
Nijkerk, Ermelo en Harderwijk hebben nu gereageerd op het onderzoek. Dat deden zij zowel afzonderlijk als samen met de provincie Gelderland. Volgens de gemeenten en de provincie is de opzet van het onderzoek te beperkt. Defensie kijkt volgens hen vooral naar het terrein in Zeewolde en te weinig naar de gevolgen voor de omliggende Gelderse gemeenten.
Nijkerk vreest directe gevolgen
Nijkerk ligt van de drie gemeenten het dichtst bij de geplande kazerne. Daarom vraagt de gemeente extra aandacht voor de N301, de Nijkerkerbrug en -sluis, de A1, de A28 en knooppunt Hoevelaken. De uitvoering van het MIRT-project bij knooppunt Hoevelaken is voor Nijkerk een belangrijke randvoorwaarde.
Ook maakt de gemeente zich zorgen over Polder Arkemheen. Volgens Nijkerk kunnen niet alleen stikstof, maar ook geluid, licht en vliegbewegingen gevolgen hebben voor het Natura 2000-gebied, weidevogels en ganzen. Daarnaast wil de gemeente onderzoek naar de gevolgen voor de woningmarkt, het elektriciteitsnet, voorzieningen en hulpdiensten. Ook vraagt Nijkerk om duidelijkheid over veiligheidszones rond bijvoorbeeld drones en de opslag van munitie en explosieven.
Ermelo wil duidelijkheid over eigen kazerne
Ermelo benadrukt dat de nieuwe kazerne niet los kan worden gezien van de uitbreiding van de bestaande legerplaats in het dorp. De gemeente wil weten wat de verhuizing van de 4e Manschappenschool naar Zeewolde betekent voor de toekomst van de locatie in Ermelo. Eerder is volgens de gemeente uitgesproken dat de Koninklijke Militaire School in Ermelo zou blijven.
Ook verwacht Ermelo meer verkeer op de N301 en N302, bij knooppunt Hoevelaken en op de A1, A28 en A30. De gemeente vraagt daarnaast aandacht voor de veiligheid bij spoorwegovergangen langs de Veluwelijn.
Harderwijk wijst op F-35 en Beekhuizerzand
Harderwijk legt vooral een verband met de militaire inzet van vliegveld Lelystad en de helikopterlandingsplaats op het Beekhuizerzand. De gemeente wil dat Defensie onderzoekt wat de gezamenlijke gevolgen zijn van F-35’s, helikoptervluchten en schietactiviteiten in Zeewolde, Ermelo en Harderwijk.
Ook vreest Harderwijk gevolgen voor de natuur rond het Nuldernauw, Wolderwijd, Veluwemeer en de Veluwe. De gemeente wil dat recreatie en toerisme als zelfstandig onderwerp worden meegenomen in het onderzoek.
Minstens 275 miljoen euro nodig voor betere bereikbaarheid
De provincie maakt zich vooral zorgen over de bereikbaarheid. Volgens Gelderland zal de nieuwe kazerne de bestaande verkeersproblemen op de Veluwe verder vergroten. Dat komt niet alleen door verkeer van en naar Zeewolde, maar ook door de uitbreiding van defensielocaties in Ermelo en Stroe en de vestiging van het Korps Mariniers in Nieuw-Milligen.
Uit een eerste verkenning blijkt volgens de provincie dat minstens 275 miljoen euro nodig is om de doorstroming en verkeersveiligheid op provinciale en gemeentelijke wegen te verbeteren. De aanpassing van de Nijkerkerbrug, waarvoor Rijkswaterstaat verantwoordelijk is, valt daar nog buiten.
De provincie wil uiterlijk in het derde kwartaal van 2026 met Defensie, het ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat en andere overheden afspraken maken over de benodigde maatregelen en de financiering. Gelderland vraagt daarbij om ‘boter bij de vis’.
Druk op woningen en stroomnet
Daarnaast verwachten de provincie en de gemeenten dat veel defensiemedewerkers zich zullen vestigen in omliggende plaatsen, waardoor de druk op de woningmarkt in onder meer Nijkerk, Ermelo en Harderwijk verder kan toenemen. Daarom wil de provincie dat Defensie in beeld brengt hoeveel extra woningen nodig zijn.
Ook moet duidelijk worden hoeveel elektriciteit de kazerne gaat gebruiken. Volgens de provincie en Nijkerk mag de energievoorziening van de kazerne de bestaande problemen op het overbelaste stroomnet in Gelderland, Flevoland en Utrecht niet verder vergroten.
Guido van Leemput
